On The Land
19 June, 2026
Australia a standout in global beef sector
TIGHTENING global supply and firm international demand is expected to maintain Australia’s beef sector as a standout performer amongst global competitors in 2026, a new industry report has found.
In its Global Beef Quarterly Q2 2026 report, agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank said global beef production was expected to fall by 2.2% this year, with major contractions forecast in Brazil, the United States and China, while cattle prices across most major producing regions had risen through the first quarter of 2026.
Against that backdrop, Australia was expected to continue delivering historically high beef production and export volumes, reinforcing its role as a key supplier to undersupplied global markets.
RaboResearch analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said the combination of tighter global availability and Australia’s ability to keep product flowing is creating a supportive environment for the local beef sector, particularly for exporters targeting high-value international markets.
The report says global beef production in quarter one was down 2.5% year-on-year, with full-year output expected to remain lower as supply constraints intensify in several of the world’s largest beef-producing nations.
RaboResearch expects some of the biggest reductions in Brazil, where annual beef production is forecast to 4%, the US (a forecast decline of 3%) and China (2%).
Mr Gidley-Baird said this broader contraction mattered for Australia because it was occurring at a time when many import markets were either short of domestic supply or looking to diversify sourcing.
“When you have global production moving lower across several major regions at the same time, it tends to underpin trade opportunities for reliable exporters, and Australia is one of those exporters,” he said.
“Importing markets are watching availability and price very closely, and Australia is well placed to capture demand where supply from competitors becomes tighter or less consistent.”
Australian beef export volumes to China were up 31% for the first five months of the year, as exporters took advantage of the market before Australia reached its quota threshold.
“Australia reached 90% of the quota on June 2, with the likelihood that the full quota will be reached in coming weeks,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“China is one of our largest markets – taking approximately 20% of our export volumes in 2026 – and, with that volume, we expect there will be some disruption as exporters pivot to other markets. But at this stage, market signals – ongoing strong prices and high slaughter volumes – indicate a confidence in the market that any disruptions caused by reaching the threshold will be minor.”
The report said the middle east crisis was increasing cost pressures across Australia’s beef supply chain, with flow on impacts for producers and consumers. However, the more significant risk for Australia lay in how the conflict in the Middle East impacted global economic conditions and, in turn, consumer demand for beef.
