On The Land
8 June, 2025
Beef production outlook positive
AUSTRALIAN beef production this year is expected to come close to equalling production records set in 2024, according to the Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2025.
The annual report, by Rabobank’s RaboResearch division, says the high beef production volumes are being matched by growing global demand, with the relatively-balanced market expected to support stable prices and good returns for Australian beef producers.
The document says 2025 will continue to see high carcase weights, and production volumes expected to remain close to the 2024 record.
Report author Angus Gidley-Baird said other major beef-producing countries are expected to see a decline in production in 2025.
“This creates demand for imports and reduces competition in Australian export markets, supporting demand for Australian beef,” he said.
He said the outlook of high production balanced by growing global demand leads to the bank’s expectation that Australian cattle prices will remain relatively steady through the course of 2025 with some potential upside.
“However, as we have seen in the first four months of the year, there remain uncertainties around trade, with the imposition of tariffs and geopolitical tensions that can lead to trade disruptions,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“Notwithstanding, 2025 is shaping up to be a good year for the Australian beef cattle industry with steady prices and strong production.”
Australia’s domestic per capita beef consumption is assumed to drop slightly in 2025 due to ongoing economic pressures.
“However, household incomes are forecast to increase by the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), which will provide some support for beef consumption,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
Given the projected domestic drop in consumption, he said exports would continue to play an important role, accounting for 75% of production.
“The US market, which consumed almost as much Australian beef as our domestic market in 2024, is expected to remain the largest market. This will predominantly be manufacturing beef.
“And we expect Asian markets will be similar to 2024, that is with relatively weak but slowly improving demand.”
RaboResearch believes the US sector is moving into a period of cattle-herd rebuilding, although any rebuild activity in 2025 would be minor.
“This will support the Australian cattle market, with a continued need for imports and less competition in shared export markets such as Japan and South Korea,” the report said.
Larger numbers of cattle to sell and higher prices are expected to generate higher cash receipts for Australian cattle producers through 2025.
Mr Gidley-Baird said these higher receipts would offset the expected rise in costs, leading to a lift in farm cash income.
