On The Land
14 December, 2025
Fertiliser prices rising
GLOBAL fertiliser markets are entering a new phase of contraction, as rising prices begin to weigh on demand, agribusiness specialist Rabobank says in new research.
In its recently-released Semi-annual Fertiliser Outlook, the bank’s RaboResearch division says affordability of agricultural fertiliser globally – as reflected in Rabo’s Fertiliser Affordability Index – is clearly beginning to decline.
With agricultural commodity prices having largely remained stable since the start of the year, the decline in affordability is primarily due to an increase in global fertiliser prices, the report says.
Between April 2025 and the end of September 2025, fertiliser prices increased by approximately 15%, RaboResearch said. Phosphates saw an increase of almost 19% in the period.
While some regions of the world continue to show resilience when it comes to fertiliser demand, the broader trend points to weakening demand in 2025, and a more pronounced downturn in 2026.
RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules said with the “12-month moving average of the affordability index moving deeper into negative territory”, this confirms the start of a new downcycle in the global fertiliser market.
“This phase closely resembles the previous contraction, suggesting the market is entering a prolonged period of reduced consumption,” he said.
For Australia, farmers continued to face persistent inflation in prices of farm inputs, including fertilisers.
And with cropping operations feeling the pressure from lower prices, this could impact fertiliser applications next season, especially given phosphate and urea prices are looking less affordable, Mr Joules said.
With Australian farmers heavily reliant on imported fertiliser, foreign exchange played a major role in the country’s retail fertiliser prices.
Year to date, the report said, and taking into account currency conversion, Australian prices have increased 25% for Morocco DAP (diammonium phosphate) FOB to AUD 1,215 per million tonne (mt) and 15% for Vancouver spot FOB potash to AUD 515/mt, while Middle East granular urea prices eased, down three per cent to AUD 545/mt.
“Over the past 12 months, the AUD/USD cross has declined 3.9%, and this has been a clear headwind for Australian fertiliser importers,” Mr Joules said.
Positively though, he said, RaboResearch is forecasting a modest increase in the Australian/US dollar exchange rate over the next 12 months, potentially reaching USD 0.68.
“This could provide some relief for fertiliser import prices here although a tight global supply and demand situation may limit the downside,” he said.
