On The Land
8 July, 2023
New weather tools aid producers
More than 80 per cent of producers are reading a rainfall forecast incorrectly and have been doing so for decades, says Agricultural Climate Research and Applications research fellow Dr Chelsea Jarvis.
More than 80 per cent of producers are reading a rainfall forecast incorrectly and have been doing so for decades, says Agricultural Climate Research and Applications research fellow Dr Chelsea Jarvis.
“Unfortunately, the way the forecast is presented is not intuitive, so if producers are not told how to read it, they would never know,” she said.
“This is probably the single most important piece of information we provide - how to correctly read a forecast.”
Dr Jarvis recently conducted a free “Climate Savvy for Grazing Management” workshop in Mareeba which was held by the Northern Australia Climate Program in conjunction with Gulf Savannah NRM.
“The bureau (of meteorology) is working on improving the forecast to help prevent this incorrect reading of forecasts but they still have a way to go,” she said.
“For example, the correct way to read the rainfall forecast for Thursday 21 May at Innisfail (see image, right) is that there is a 100 percent chance of at least 0.2mm (the threshold for ‘measurable rain’), there is a 50 percent chance of at least 10mm and only a 25 per cent chance of at least 30mm.
“Most people incorrectly read this forecast as a 100 percent chance of 10-30mm.”
At the workshop producers learned more about seasonal forecasts and the climate drivers that influence those forecasts. The workshop also went on to explain forecasts in depth and also revealed the most accurate forecast for Northern Australia.
Producers also gained an insight into the coming season, and whether it’s likely to be early or late, and what an El Nino could mean for them.
The Northern Australian Climate Project (NACP) provides climate workshops across northern Australia (Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australian north of Carnarvon) free of charge to the grazing community and related supply chain.
“The purpose of these workshops is to provide more information around important climate drivers, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and to let producers know which climate tools and forecasts are available and which are the most reliable,” Dr Jarvis said.
“Producers and the supply chain benefit in the following two main ways.
“They receive targeted climate information and forecasts that are framed in a way relative to their production system i.e. we provide all of the useful information and nothing unneeded.
“We listen to producer needs and requests for research and new tools.
“For example, just after the January 2019 floods, the project did a roadshow through the areas impacted and met directly with producers.
“Producers said that they needed a forecast for ‘meaningful’ rainfall (15+mm) – not just 2mm.
“The head of NACP Development, Dr. Tim Cowan, took this feedback on board and created a new forecast for ‘meaningful rainfall’ and it is now live on the BOM website. It is called ‘Chance of 3-day totals’.
The northern Australian beef industry is strongly influenced by the impact of climate and weather variability. Prolonged droughts or the failures of wet seasons can cause abrupt changes in water availability and are the biggest challenges graziers face.
The NACP delivers innovative research, development and extension outcomes to improve the capacity of the red meat industry to manage drought and climate risk across northern Australia. It is funded by Meat and Livestock Australia, the Queensland Government and the University of Southern Queensland.
