On The Land
17 May, 2025
Producer confidence at 12-month high
CONFIDENCE among Queensland’s agricultural producers has climbed to a 12-month high, with the state recording among the highest levels of rural confidence in the country, according to the latest quarterly Rabobank Rural Survey.
Positive seasonal conditions were shown to be the key driver of the increasingly optimistic outlook in the state’s agricultural sector.
Queensland rural sentiment was shown to be the second highest in the nation, with the quarter one survey, released last week, showing the Queensland net rural confidence index had risen into “positive territory” at 10%, up from -1% in the December quarter.
Completed in February, the survey found around a quarter of Queensland producers, at 24% (up from 18% last quarter), expected agricultural economic conditions to improve in the year ahead, while a further 57% expected similar conditions to the previous 12 months.
Meanwhile, a smaller proportion of the state’s producers – at 14% (down from 19%) – expected economic conditions to worsen.
Just over half of Queensland producers surveyed (51%) were optimistic about seasonal conditions for the year ahead – up from 43% in the previous quarter. Commodity prices were a positive factor for 26% of the survey respondents (down from 32% last quarter), while the state of overseas markets/economies was cited by 24% as cause for optimism (up from 19%).
Currently around a quarter of the nation’s farmers (at 24%) expect agribusiness conditions to improve in the next 12 months, up from 18% previously.
By region, the Rabobank survey found confidence had picked up across Queensland, with the Central Highlands/Central Queensland and the Darling Downs posting the biggest rebounds in sentiment, followed by the South West/Central West/Channel Country and Northern Queensland.
Recently-appointed Rabobank state manager for Queensland Pollyana Saraiva said good summer rainfall across much of the state had “set producers up well” for the year ahead, though producers in the south-west and parts of northern Queensland were now nervously watching the impact of rainfall “deluges” in recent days.
“By and large, much of Queensland had been enjoying good seasonal conditions,” she said.
“However, there were farmers in the north of the state adversely impacted by the extreme rain and flooding following the tropical low earlier in the year, as well as some impacted by Cyclone Alfred. And now producers in the north and south-west are dealing with heavy rainfall and flooding.”
By commodity, the survey found confidence had picked up strongly in Queensland’s beef sector – with beef producers the most positive about their prospects and 32% expecting economic conditions to improve in the year ahead (up from 20% with that view previously).
Rabobank head of relationship management for Queensland Joe Webb said despite record production volumes through 2024, Australian cattle prices had remained steady.
“With favourable seasonal conditions and improving US demand for imports, the bank is expecting cattle prices to remain steady with some upside through the first half of 2025,” he said.
Mr Webb said Queensland’s sugar cane producers had faced a challenging start to the year.
“Flooding across North Queensland has left many communities and farming businesses facing a long recovery. For impacted sugarcane growers, one of the biggest challenges ahead is replanting lost crops,” he said.
Investment intentions rose strongly among Queensland producers this quarter, with Queensland farmers now reporting the highest investment appetite in the country.
The survey showed 34% of the state’s farmers intend to increase their on-farm investment in the coming 12 months (up from 27% last quarter), while a further 58% are looking to maintain spending at current levels (previously 62%).
“The generally good seasonal conditions, coupled with reasonable commodity prices, have given Queensland producers a level of optimism about re-investing in their agricultural businesses,” Mr Webb said.
The RBA’s recent cut to the official cash rate – along with market expectations of further rate cuts – may also be factoring into producers’ investment plans, he said.
Across the state, producers intend to invest in on-farm infrastructure, such as fences, silos and yards (planned by 67%), water/irrigation infrastructure (40%), adopting new technologies (39%) and new plant/machinery (37%).
A total of 13% of Queensland producers surveyed reported they are looking to expand their businesses through property acquisition (up from 10% last quarter).
Farm income projections for Queensland producers held steady, after a rise in this measure seen last quarter. Overall, 32% expected their gross farm income to rise over the 12 months ahead (up from 30% last quarter), while 48% expected a similar financial result to the past year.
The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey has been conducted since 2000 by an independent research organisation. The next results are scheduled for release in June.
