On The Land
25 May, 2025
US Tariff impacts AUS Ag trade
THE current United States baseline tariffs of 10 per cent should be manageable for most countries, including Australia, a new research report said.
Australian agricultural trade overall should be able to maintain current trade volumes, and some commodities may even find opportunities to gain share in US or China.
However, US trade policy “bears watching”, as it could change in the near future, according to Win, lose, or draw: What US tariffs could mean for Australian and New Zealand exports report, developed by Rabobank’s research division.
With tariff rates at 10 per cent, Australian beef exports to the US were likely to continue at strong levels. Australia also shares common export markets (China, Japan and South Korea) with the US, so any retaliatory action these countries direct to the US may provide opportunities for Australia.
Sheep meat was also likely to continue steadily. Together, Australia and New Zealand supply over 98 per cent of US sheep meat imports and were likely to continue.
Over 95 per cent of US wine imports currently face 10 per cent baseline tariffs. From July 9, higher reciprocal tariffs are expected to affect over 80 per cent of imports, mainly from the EU, while imports from Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and Chile will remain at 10 per cent, giving them a relative advantage.
The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement allows Canadian canola oil and meal to flow tariff-free into the US, preventing increased competition with Australian canola in the EU and Asia.
High Chinese tariffs have halted imports of almonds from the US, its major supplier. Australia is well positioned to gain market share in China, which is already its largest destination.
